The growth of Coronavirus cases in Germany is basically identical to the development in Italy, just ~1 week delayed (no machine learning needed to see this)

Published by Joeran Beel on

Usually, I do research in the field of recommender systems, algorithm selection, and machine learning. But, to see how Coronavirus cases develop in Germany, and to predict how it will continue to develop, no machine learning is needed.

The chart below shows how Covid-19 cases recently developed in Italy and Germany (Source: Worldometers; Chart: Joeran Beel) . The x-axis shows “Day 1”, “Day 2” … whereas “Day 1” represents the 24th of February for Italy and the 3rd of March 2020 for Germany. “Day 2” represents the 25th of February for Italy and the 4th of March for Germany… .

Covid-19 Cases Development in Germany and Italy Compared
Click to enlarge the chart showing the growth of Covid-19 cases in Germany and Italy

For 13 days — from the 24th of February, until the 7th of March in Italy; and from the 3rd of March until today in Germany — the lines are nearly identical. In other words, the development of cases in Germany is very much like the development in Italy, only with a ~ 1-week delay.

I sincerely hope that Germany will manage to break this trend, but I am afraid, at least for the next couple of days, it is pretty clear in which direction the number of total and new Covid-19 cases will go in Germany: up!

Disclaimer: I saw a similar graphic a few days ago. A friend had sent it to me via WhatsApp (and he had received it from a friend who presumably had received it from a friend…), but there was no source given, and the chart showed the development only until some days ago. Hence, I decided to create my own chart.


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