GDRR 2013: Third Symposium on

Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk

Trident Hotel, Kinsale, County Cork, Ireland

July 8th - 10th, 2013



GDRR 2013 Programme:

Monday 8th July

09:00-18:00    Registration

Session 1        Tutorials                                                                         Name                               Affiliation

09:30               Tutorial 1 (Statistical methods in Risk and Reliability)   Tom Mazzuchi                 George Washington University

11:00               Tea/Coffee

11:15               Tutorial 2 (Game Theory)                                               Jesús Ríos                      IBM T.J. Watson Research Centre

13:00               Lunch

Session 2        Industrial Risk (the ISBA/IS session)

Chair: Simon Wilson

14:00               Welcome to GDRR 2013                                                Simon Wilson                 Trinity College Dublin

14:05               Decision-theoretic modeling of early life failures            Juergen Pilz                    Alpen-Adria University

                        in semiconductor manufacturing                                   

14:35               Nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the probability    Merlin Keller                   Electricité de France

                        of detection of flaws in an industrial component, with

                        application to industrial risk assessment

15:05               Entropy, Decision and Reliability                                     Ehsan Soofi                    University of Wisconsin

15:35               Tea/Coffee

Session 3        Environmental Risk

Chair: Refik Soyer

15:50               Technical performance measurement and technical       Tom Mazzuchi               George Washington University

                        risk analysis utilizing the assessment of probability

                        distributions from expert judgement

16:20               Bayesian analysis of a parametric semi-Markov              Ilenia Epifani                  Politecnico di Milano

                        process applied to seismic data

16:50               Statistical tools for detecting and visualizing outliers in    Anna Paganoni              Politecnico di Milano

                        provider profiling: an effective decisional support to

                        healthcare regulation

17:20               Close

Tuesday 9th July

Session 4      

Chair: Frank Coolen

09:30               A probabilistic approach for risk assessment in food        Sara Pasquali               CNR Milano

                        chain and application to plant biosecurity

10:00               A conjugate class of utility functions for sequential           Brett Houlding               Trinity College Dublin

                        decision problems

10:25               Gas capacity booking using stochastic optimisation         Niall Fitzgerald              Bord Gais Energy

                        with recourse    

10:55               Tea/Coffee

Session 5        Contributed Session

Chair: Brett Houlding

11:15               A risk management framework for strategic financial        Jesús Ríos                     IBM T.J. Watson Research Center


11:40               The value of information in some stopping problems        Debarun Bhattacharya   IBM T.J. Watson Research Center

12:05               Adversarial risk analysis in auctions                                  David Banks                   Duke University

12:30               Lunch

Session 6        Junior ISBA Session

Chair: David Banks

14:00               Bayesian analysis of imperfect debugging in                     Tevfik Aktekin                University of New Hampshire

                        software reliability

14:30               Parametric and topological inference for masked              Louis Aslett                   Trinity College Dublin

                        lifetime data

15:00               Condition-based maintenance modelling and                    Sameer Al-Dahidi           Politecnico di Milano

                        decision making taking into account uncertainties   

15:30               Tea/Coffee

Session 7        Game Theory

Chair: Richard Arnold

15:50               A game theoretic model of financial crises                          Kjell Hausken               University of Stavanger

16:20               Some problems of daily life from the perspective                Josep Freixas               Polytechnic University of Catalonia

                        of game theory

16:50               Reliability updating in linear opinion pooling for                  Donnacha Bolger          Trinity College Dublin

                        multiple decision makers

17:20               Close

18:00               Poster Session

19:30               Conference Dinner

Wednesday 10th July

Session 8        Aerospace Risk

Chair: Chiara Leva

09:30               The use of probabilistic risk analysis procedure for            Paolo Trucco                 Politecnico di Milano

                        assessment of aircraft overruns                                          & Chiara Leva               Trinity College Dublin

10:00               Multi-agent dynamic risk modelling for accident risk           Sybert Stoeve               NLR Air Transport Safety Institute

                        assessment of runway incursion scenarios

10:30               The hunt for the perfect performance indicator                   Gary Kenney                 VisionMonitor

                                                                                                                    & Morten Ydalus

11:00               Tea/Coffee

Session 9        Contributed Session

Chair: Antonio Pievatolo

11:20               Analyzing decision situations with decision circuits            Debarun Bhattacharya   IBM T.J. Watson Research Center

11:45               A graphical method for simplifying Bayesian games          Peter Thwaites               University of Leeds

12:10               Asymmetrical adjustments in preference elicitation,           Stephane Deparis          IBM T.J. Watson Research

                        the effect of multicriteria conflict

12:35               Assuring the coherence between the qualitative and         Micaela Demichela        Politecnico di Torino

                        quantitative part of a QRA

13:00               Lunch

Session 10       Reliability

Chair: Simon Wilson

14:30               System reliability using the survival signature                    Frank Coolen                 University of Durham

15:00               Optimization of pay-per-click bidding for search engines   David Wooff                   University of Durham

15:30               Modelling multicomponent systems with dependent           Richard Arnold              Victoria University of Wellington


16:00               Conference Close

16:10               Final Tea/Coffee